One of Brad's readers at Azamatteroffact said: (1) he expects Mike Huckabee to win the Iowa primary; (2) he believes Huckabee can win the nomination; (3) he and his friend like either a Huckabee-McCain ticket or a McCain-Huckabee. The following is my response:
The national polls will have some influence on who wins Iowa, which is not exactly a representative state for Republicans. Of the people in Iowa who identify themselves as Republicans, fully 39% see themselves as evangelical Christians (roughly the same percentage as SC). In NH, the number who identify themselves that way adds up to only 10%, which is a major reason Mike is so far behind in the Granite State.
The problem for Mike is that once he gets out of the South (and certain sections of the Midwest, the percentage of evangelical Christian Republicans is rather low. Right now, I don't see how Mike could get the nomination.
To do so, he must WIN -- in several states. Right now, he doesn't look like a winner in any of early primary states, with the possible exception of Iowa. He will not do well in NH and his chances don't look good in MI or FL. After that, it's Super Tuesday, and among those states, it appears he's only ahead in AR.
But I guess it's not a good udea to count the votes before they get cast.
I can't imagine McCain, at his age, taking the VP slot. I continue to prefer Gov. Sarah Palin over all other possibilities for the Vice-Presidential slot.
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