President Hillary Rodham Clinton?
As a Party we Republicans must get to a point where a very good candidate (a Giuliani or a McCain) has a fighting chance in the general election to win Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. I don't see Huckabee winning any of them.
Huckabee is the "candidate of the evangelicals." The problem is that evangelicals make up one-third of the REPUBLICAN voters. What a Hillary Clinton or an Obama would be targeting would be the other five-sixths of the vote (two-thirds of the Republicans, plus the Independents and Democrats).
What exactly is Huckabee's appeal, say, to young professional women (teachers, lawyers, doctors, nurses, journalists, MBA-types)? His personality and policies are are going to a problem with younger voters, young female professionals, urban "Yankees," gays/lesbians, union members, Blacks, and Hispanics.
We hear a lot lately about the high "unfavorable" ratings Hillary Clinton has. But that view can be very misleading.If you remember the 2004 poll situation, there was a great deal of discussion about how Bush's approval rating never got above 49%. Well, even with high disapproval numbers, he won the election by nearly 3 million votes (although the electoral college was close). Kerry won NY, NJ, PA, and CA -- and they add up to a huge total in electoral votes.
Mrs. Clinton would have a good chance of winning those states, plus IL, MI, and MN, in addition to MA and all the other New England states. She should also do well in the Pacific Northwest.In presidential years, we Republicans can't keep riding on the razor's edge and expect to keep winning.
We're now hearing how Hillary's favorable rating is only 47%-48%, etc. Well, that's about where Bush was in 2004. Clinton has very high negatives in states the Republicans would be expected to win (GA, UT, ID, AL, MS, and the like).
However, in many of the largest states, her favorability ratings are not that bad. The Republican candidate will have a tough time in the states where the Hispanic vote will be significant, including Colorado, Arizona, NM, and NV.
To get the nomination, Mrs. Clinton will have to win at least one of the early primaries -- IA, NH, or SC. She should be able to do so -- probably Iowa.
The problem with conservatives is that they tend to be egocentric. They say, "Well, I can't stand Hillary, therefore she has no chance of becoming President." What I think (or you think) is not translatable into national attitudes. Tens of millions of Americans think Hillary Clinton is just fine. In fact, as many as 65 million voters might be willing to vote for her.
The upshot? If Mrs. Clinton can win the Democratic nomination, she has a good chance of becoming President of the USA.
NOTE: IF YOU LOOK TO THE BLOGROLL ON YOUR RIGHT, YOU'LL DISCOVER A RAPIDLY GROWING NUMBER OF "BLOGGERS 4 RUSSELL." IF YOU'D LIKE TO JOIN, PLEASE LEAVE YOUR BLOG'S NAME ON THE "COMMENTS" SECTION OR E-MAIL ME AT TALKTOP65@AOL.COM. THE BLOGGERS ARE GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN RUSSELL'S WINNING. BE SURE TO VISIT HIS WEB SITE AT: http://williamrussellforcongress.com/.
Here's how the Bloggers 4 Russell will work: When we get to approximately 100 Bloggers 4 Russell, they'll all be asked to make modest contributions to the Russell Campaign -- and to ask their thousands of blog visitors to do the same. Such requests for donations will be made in January, March, and May, times when it's essential that Russell store up enough monetary "acorns" to get his message across and mobilize supporters (the Three "Ms," message, mobilization, and money). As we get above 200 Bloggers 4 Russell, they'll be asked to contact bloggers and friends in PA and -- especially -- in the 12th congressional district. As the campaign goes into the spring and summer, there will be a heavy emphasis on the state and district. My personal goal is to play a role in soliciting 1,000 volunteers for Russell who will work in the district, making calls, registering and canvassing voters, stuffing envelopes, answering phones, and the like. If Russell can get 1,000 active volunteers -- people who collectively influence tens of thousands of votes -- he will win, much to Murtha's amazement.