WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN IOWA

If any of you are visiting from Eric Dondero's libertarian radio program, this is my main site. Currently, I also cross-post at: http://stevemaloneygop.blogspot.com.


"Life is a terrible teacher. First, it gives you the test -- and only then teaches you the lesson." (Anonymous)

NOTE: I'm going to wait until the organizational "dust" settles in the Russell Campaign before I write about it again. I'm going to spend the month of January writing about several other campaigns that I believe are extremely important, including Melissa Hart's effort to regain her congressional seat in PA's 4th District (where I live).

The following is an e-mail I wrote to several conservative and/or Republican members of Yahoo Groups. I am a very strong advocate of involving conservative and moderate younger people (the "Children's Crusade") in campaigns to elect Republicans.

I wrote awhile back to a couple of Yahoo Groups stating my strong disagreement with the gentleman who observed that Young People (17-30) aren't very important in politics, etc., etc.

To me, that was a classic example of a know-everything who knows nothing. In Iowa, Obama won a smashing victory with 57% of the young (Democratic) voters.

In the campaigns I'm working on -- especially Melissa Hart's effort -- I intend to seek out every conservative or moderate young person I can. I've used that approach in the past, and I see no reason not to repeat it. We cranky (mostly older) conservatives don't like dealing with young voters, so we pretend they don't exist.

Obama did not suffer from that illusion. He recognized that young people going to college in Iowa (including out-of-staters) were a key to victory. He got thousands of college students to return EARLY to campus and vote in the caucuses. And he won big.

Apparently, we Republican conservatives aren't that bright. We write off one group after another (Blacks, Hispanics, young people, female professionals) and expect somehow that our ideological fervor will save the day. It won't.

Immigration was a big issue with the relatively small number of Republicans who caucused. It was not a big issue with the huge number of Democrats who participated. The tremendous Democratic turnout in Iowa (239,000!) is an ominous development. Iowa is a swing-state, and guess which way it's swinging?

The results in 2008 could make the 2006 disaster look like the good old days.

Huckabee? He carried a large portion of the heavy evangelical vote in Iowa. I don't really have a lot else to say about it. Obama received more than twice as many votes as Huckabees.

I don't believe Huckabee has any chance of launching a national strategy to win in a general election. Evangelicals are a mere one-third of the people who call themselves Republicans.

I foresee a vote for Huckabee in a presidential election of about 35%. That kind of poor performance would cost Republicans many, many seats in Congress.