Friday, April 25, 2008

Obama Radioactive: Looming Democrat Disaster

As you may already know, I've written a column critical of John McCain for insisting the NC GOP pull an ad critical of Obama. The NC Republicans were right, and McCain was wrong. Please visit the NC GOP web site, write them an e-mail of support and, if you can, kick a few bucks their way. (The Party chair's e-mail box was full -- imagine that -- but the others were open.) Here's the link:

This is the weekend column . . . would love your comments.

In many states (PA, NM, NC) Republicans are running ads to support state ("down-ticket") Republican candidates that feature criticisms of Barack Obama. In perhaps 30 states, he is becoming radioactive. My friend, Melissa Hart, who's running for Congress in the 4th congressional district is launching almost daily attacks on her opponent, Jason Altmire, for his "fawning," uncritical behavior toward Obama.

Consider the following information disseminated by Sharon Caliendo, a political superstar and consultant in Oklahoma and Texas:

Sooner Survey: Barack Obama Would Be A Disaster For State Democrats,
Drag Entire Ticket Down

Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for president would be a disaster for Oklahoma Democrats and possibly drag down other Democrat candidates, the new edition of the Sooner Survey reports.

Survey Director Pat McFerron reports that with either Obama or Hillary Clinton as the party nominee, Republican John McCain should win the state easily. But while McCain now leads Clinton 2-to-1, he leads Obama 3-to-1 and Obama displays startling weakness in Democrat areas of the state.

While Oklahoma Republicans once salivated at the opportunity to again run against a Clinton, McFerron writes, "Barack Obama’s numbers in the state make him an even more appealing Democrat nominee to run against."

For Oklahoma Democrats on the fall ballot, McFerron sounds an ominous warning: "When looking at their individual favorability numbers, there is not much difference between Obama (32% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable) and Clinton (34% favorable vs. 57% unfavorable).However, when looking at ballot match-ups against McCain, there is a sizeable difference that could have dire consequences for down-ballot Democrats.

Against Hillary Clinton, John McCain has a two-to-one advantage (60% McCain vs. 30% Clinton). Against Barack Obama, however, it approaches three-to-one (62% McCain vs. 21% Obama)."Obama drew a favorable rating from 32 percent of those in the survey, with 54 percent expressing an unfavorable opinion. And 40 percent have a "strongly unfavorable" impression of him.

McFerron writes that in the Ada/Ardmore area, an area of significant Democrat strength, 81 percent of those surveyed picked McCain and only 5 percent picked Obama in a head-to-head matchup.

In Little Dixie, McCain has an astounding 5-to-1 lead over Obama.

Sharon Caliendo added the following:

"I think this is pretty much what you are going to see across the South including Texas and Florida. I work with a good friend out of Florida that said he believes the OK numbers will be similar for Florida which is outstanding news. I expect Sen McCain to have coattails in a lot of our states that were all or predominately red the last time. OK and UT had every county go for Pres Bush and as it stands now I expect those numbers to rise for Sen McCain as we draw in the American Indian vote for the Senator. He has spent years working for the Indians on the Senate Committee and all the ones I have talked with in OK support McCain."Getting a good feeling about this election in our part of the Country.

Now to reach out to those states that were blue in the last election to bring some of them red so on election night we can celebrate instead of waiting until the next day and longer."


James H said...

Of course for this to happen Obama has to take care of business and take care of Hilary in Indiana. I am not at al convinced by the media spin that Hillary is finished. What happens when she wins WV and people are reminded oh yeah we love to get that state back. Surely some smart people in the Dem party are noticing this

Penn was a shock. I expected Obama to lose but I uod not expect him to lose that bad in those western counties

I would feel better if the GOP was not so cash poor. If we can some money I think we could have a good night against Obama and we need all the help we can get on the down ticket races

Stephen R. Maloney said...

James: The Dem. race is truly interesting. It appears unlikely that Clinton can catch up to Obama in "pledged delegates." The Dems have proportional representation, which removes the possibility of a winner-take-all surge. I don't think it's impossible for Hilary to get the nomination, but it's not a done deal -- yet.

Obama's losses in western PA and in the small-town, small-city areas were truly amazing. He was supposed to get major help from Sen. Casey, but Hillary won the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre county by 48,000 to 16,000. Amazing.

On the money issue: you said it very well. Unless McCain and Republicans can do much better with fund-raising the Dems will have a major advantage. I've given $250 to McCain and a little more than to Hart, but I don't have the resources to do a lot more. I will do what I can because I know how important money is going to be.

Anyway, thanks for visiting!

steve maloney
ambridge, pa