NOTE: MY MONDAY (AND TUESDAY) COLUMN WILL COME UP ABOUT 7 P.M. THIS EVENING. I'M STICKING BY MY PREDICTION THAT HILLARY CLINTON WILL WIN BY DOUBLE-DIGITS IN PA. GOV. ED RENDELL, A HILLARY CLINTON BACKER, IS PREDICTING A SINGLE-DIGIT WIN, BUT I BELIEVE HE'S ENGAGING IN THE TIME-HONORED TRADITION OF "LOWERING EXPECTATIONS."
The column below is reposted from my Pennsylvania site (http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.com. In this year's election, Pennsylvania is going to be what the pundits call "highly competitive." Generally, the columns on the Pennsylvania site will be "states-specific," recognizing that PA is going to be a critical battleground state. Later today, I'll be putting up a new -- and extremely important -- blog called: http://hillarysupportersformccain.blogspot.com. When Obama wins the nomination, as he presumably will, many Hillary supporters -- perhaps one-in-four -- will be inclined to vote for John McCain, and the Hillary site will involve discussions about that development. I urge you to visit both these sites.
On Sunday, April 20, the results of the latest Gallup "Tracking Poll" were released. They showed Hillary Clinton leading nationally among Democrats by one percentage point. A week ago, Obama's lead in the Gallup Poll was about 11 points, so there's been a dramatic drop in his national support.
In Pennsylvania, the average of polls shows Mrs. Clinton's lead at about five points.Some analysts, including this one, believe it's entirely possible that Clinton will win in the Keystone State by approximately 10 percentage points. I've guessed it will be about 55% to 45%, although it could conceivably be by as much as 57% to 43%.
Senator Clinton is stronger in Pennsylvania than you might have been hearing on TV. Right now, she's tied or leading in every demographic except Blacks and the wealthiest of Democrats.If Mrs. Clinton has a double-digit win in Pennsylvania, look for to call on Super Delegates to support her. Presumably, she will point directly to the Gallup Poll as illustrating that she's the most electable candidate. She would have a powerful argument in her favor.
Clearly, Obama has been hurt by two factors: (1) his "bitter" comments about small town America; (2) his poor performance in the recent debate. The national media, many of whom obviously support Obama, have been slow to report on the dramatic changes taking place in the Democratic race.
Keep a close eye on those Gallup Tracking Polls. If Senator Clinton extends her lead, the Democratic race may become more chaotic than it already is. My own guess? That the battle will go right to the convention floor in Denver, an eventuality that will help John McCain.
In fact, McCain is looking like a probable general election winner in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and even New Jersey, usually thought of as a solid "Blue State." Mrs. Clinton had solid wins in Ohio and New Jersey, and she should have a similar result in PA. In today's complex political environment, that's good news for John McCain.
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2 comments:
It sure is getting hard keeping track of all these polls. I don't know which democrap I'd rather see McCain trounce in November. I guess it really doesn't matter, he should do fine against either of them. A little early to stick my neck out, but I predict 60 to 40 against Obama and 55 to 45 against Clinton, maybe even closer. The reason for the difference is because I think Obama will do worse than Clinton with the independants. I'm still waiting for the media to turn on the heat over Obama's book "Dreams from my father". If they don't, I'm sure the republicans will! What a piece of literary trash that thing is!
Joe
P.S. You can color New Hampshire red this time around!
Dear Average American (named Joe, too!): Thanks for your good insights and predictions. I also believe McCain will win New Hampshire and, yes, it will be the Independents who carry him through to victory there. Keep up the good work and keep telling your friends and family that you're backing John McCain, an authentic American hero!
steve
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