Tuesday, February 19, 2008

CAN MCCAIN WIN "BATTLEGROUND" STATES?

On CNN (3:40 ET on Tuesday) Carl Berstein just said that the Clinton Campaign is portraying Obama as "an empty suit with great lungs." In this regard, John McCain can learn from Hillary -- and vice versa. Obama's "message of Hope" is a bumper sticker, not a vision for the country. Mrs. Clinton's strategy is to establish Obama not as a JFK-style visionary but rather as a windbag.


The example of New Jersey . . .

On the state blogs for McCain front, I'm managing the Pennsylvania site -- and I'd very much like so co-managers. It's not a lot of work, but it is a great deal of fun -- and it's for a very good cause, ensuring the election of John McCain. I'm TEMPORARILY managing the Ohio and New Jersey sites until we can find full-time managers for those sites.

If you'd like to volunteer or recommend someone, please do so either in the comments section or by e-mailing me at: TalkTop65@aol.com.

On the Garden State site today, I asked a fundamental question: Can McCain actually win a state like New Jersey? McCain has said he wants to pursue a 50-state strategy, competing in every one of them. I'm very much in favor of that approach.

New Jersey is a fascinating case. In 2000, George W. Bush got skunked there by Al Gore. The latter got 56% of the vote and GWB got 40%. In 2004, Kerry won the state, but only by 53% to 46%. In politics, 45% or more are the magic numbers, meaning that in a future race a state might just be winnable.

The following are excerpts from what I told the New Jerseyites:

New Jersey for McCain? Here! (link to the entire piece)

Can John McCain actually win New Jersey? I sure hope so. As some of you will remember from the 2004 election, George Bush started to get close to Kerry -- to the point that the Vice President paid a late visit to Jersey.

To win in NJ, a candidate must draw many votes from Independents -- and some votes from Democrats. The registration figures suggest that a strong Republican candidate with great appeal to Independents and Democrats -- that is, McCain -- can in fact prevail in New Jersey.

Yes, there are 1,150,000 registered Democrats to just 890,000 Republicans (according to The Almanac of American Politics). However, there's an amazing 2.8 million "others," 56% of the total. (The registration percentages in New Hampshire are similar.)

If Senator McCain can win a good majority of those "others," he can carry the state. McCain is not going to be able to outspend his Democratic opponent (probably Barack Obama, but possibly Hillary Clinton). However, as his campaign so far shows, he will outwork them.

To win, he needs a massive number of voluteers around the country. You can be one of those volunteers by taking over this blog. As the old saying goes, "If you not, who? If not now, when?"

If you're interested in volunteering [for NJ or another state] or would like to suggest a name, please e-mail me at: TalkTop65@aol.com -- or leave a message in the comments section. Thanks for visiting!

Note: I hope you'll visit the operating state blogs, including Oklahoma and New Mexico. Please leave comments. John McCain will win because of efforts of people who are just like you.

Note: If you live in Wisconsin or Washington State, please vote today for John McCain! (We need blog volunteers from both states.)

See Christopher's comment on what states may be winnable. Christopher's fine blog is here.

1 comment:

Christopher said...

McCain is the first candidate to put the Northeast in play. What was the Democrat's safe ground is now threatened by him. The following states had or have GOP governors recently: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont. Delaware gets only one rep. for the house and they have consistently picked a Republican. Maine and New Hampshire have 2 GOP Senators. All of this tells us that voters are willing to consider a Republican if it is the right one. To that point, McCain is certainly in the game.