Single issue voters are destroying the GOP's chances of winning crucial elections -- including the presidency. That's true whether the single issue is abortion, gay marriage, or immigration. Ironically (sadly?), the single-issue voters are also undermining their chances to win on their issue of choice.
In fact, abortion, gay marriage, and immigration are NOT big issues with most American voters, as we found out once again in almost all-white, politically moderate Iowa. All three of the Democratic candidates hold views the opposite of GOP single-issue voters, including the evangelicals who cast their votes for Mike Huckabee.
Look at it this way: the number of Iowans who participate in the Democratic caucuses totaled an amazing 239,000. That was nearly twice the number in the Republican caucuses.
In Iowa, the registration figures break down this way: one-third Republican, one-third Democratic, and one-third "other (mainly Independent).
Iowa is a "light Blue" or "light pink" state, as illustrated by George Bush's losing narrowly in 2000 and winning narrowly in 2004. It's one where Republicans should at least be competitive on a statewide basis. Right now, Republicans are nowhere near being competitive in Iowa.
Look at the Caucus this way: ONE Republican, Mike Huckabee, won by a fairly comfortable margin. However, THREE Democrats -- Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary -- all got MORE Caucus votes than Huckabee. If he'd been running for Democratic votes, he would have finished a failry distant FOURTH.
Of course, many Huckabee supporters -- Larry Perrault being a prominent one -- have announced that if Mike doesn't get the nomination, they will sit out the election. That should make it much easier for either Obama or Hillary Clinton to win the general election.
Generally, Democrats like their choice of (extremely liberal) candidates. Republicans don't like their choice of (mainly conservative) candidates.
If what happens in New Hampshire and South Carolina resembles in any way what occurred in Iowa, Republican candidates -- many of them superb human beings -- are in for a drubbing. Democrats are united, while Republicans are fractured.
Whomever the Democrats select as their nominee for President, bet your money on him -- or her.
Tomorrow's column (on Tuesday) will be about the candidacy of Melissa Hart trying to regain her seat in PA's 4th Congressional District.
Later this week I'll write one of my last pieces on the Russell-Murtha race. After analyzing the race carefully, I believe -- sadly -- that the race is not currently winnable by a challenger; however, any Republican candidate that can chalk up 100,000 votes would be in a good position to win the seat when Murtha retires/passes away. Diana Irey probably will be the strongest challenger Murtha will face in his lifetime, and she got nearly 79,000 votes -- and they came in an off-year election. In off years in the 12th CD many people don't bother to vote.
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN IOWA
If any of you are visiting from Eric Dondero's libertarian radio program, this is my main site. Currently, I also cross-post at: http://stevemaloneygop.blogspot.com.
"Life is a terrible teacher. First, it gives you the test -- and only then teaches you the lesson." (Anonymous)
NOTE: I'm going to wait until the organizational "dust" settles in the Russell Campaign before I write about it again. I'm going to spend the month of January writing about several other campaigns that I believe are extremely important, including Melissa Hart's effort to regain her congressional seat in PA's 4th District (where I live).
The following is an e-mail I wrote to several conservative and/or Republican members of Yahoo Groups. I am a very strong advocate of involving conservative and moderate younger people (the "Children's Crusade") in campaigns to elect Republicans.
I wrote awhile back to a couple of Yahoo Groups stating my strong disagreement with the gentleman who observed that Young People (17-30) aren't very important in politics, etc., etc.
To me, that was a classic example of a know-everything who knows nothing. In Iowa, Obama won a smashing victory with 57% of the young (Democratic) voters.
In the campaigns I'm working on -- especially Melissa Hart's effort -- I intend to seek out every conservative or moderate young person I can. I've used that approach in the past, and I see no reason not to repeat it. We cranky (mostly older) conservatives don't like dealing with young voters, so we pretend they don't exist.
Obama did not suffer from that illusion. He recognized that young people going to college in Iowa (including out-of-staters) were a key to victory. He got thousands of college students to return EARLY to campus and vote in the caucuses. And he won big.
Apparently, we Republican conservatives aren't that bright. We write off one group after another (Blacks, Hispanics, young people, female professionals) and expect somehow that our ideological fervor will save the day. It won't.
Immigration was a big issue with the relatively small number of Republicans who caucused. It was not a big issue with the huge number of Democrats who participated. The tremendous Democratic turnout in Iowa (239,000!) is an ominous development. Iowa is a swing-state, and guess which way it's swinging?
The results in 2008 could make the 2006 disaster look like the good old days.
Huckabee? He carried a large portion of the heavy evangelical vote in Iowa. I don't really have a lot else to say about it. Obama received more than twice as many votes as Huckabees.
I don't believe Huckabee has any chance of launching a national strategy to win in a general election. Evangelicals are a mere one-third of the people who call themselves Republicans.
I foresee a vote for Huckabee in a presidential election of about 35%. That kind of poor performance would cost Republicans many, many seats in Congress.
"Life is a terrible teacher. First, it gives you the test -- and only then teaches you the lesson." (Anonymous)
NOTE: I'm going to wait until the organizational "dust" settles in the Russell Campaign before I write about it again. I'm going to spend the month of January writing about several other campaigns that I believe are extremely important, including Melissa Hart's effort to regain her congressional seat in PA's 4th District (where I live).
The following is an e-mail I wrote to several conservative and/or Republican members of Yahoo Groups. I am a very strong advocate of involving conservative and moderate younger people (the "Children's Crusade") in campaigns to elect Republicans.
I wrote awhile back to a couple of Yahoo Groups stating my strong disagreement with the gentleman who observed that Young People (17-30) aren't very important in politics, etc., etc.
To me, that was a classic example of a know-everything who knows nothing. In Iowa, Obama won a smashing victory with 57% of the young (Democratic) voters.
In the campaigns I'm working on -- especially Melissa Hart's effort -- I intend to seek out every conservative or moderate young person I can. I've used that approach in the past, and I see no reason not to repeat it. We cranky (mostly older) conservatives don't like dealing with young voters, so we pretend they don't exist.
Obama did not suffer from that illusion. He recognized that young people going to college in Iowa (including out-of-staters) were a key to victory. He got thousands of college students to return EARLY to campus and vote in the caucuses. And he won big.
Apparently, we Republican conservatives aren't that bright. We write off one group after another (Blacks, Hispanics, young people, female professionals) and expect somehow that our ideological fervor will save the day. It won't.
Immigration was a big issue with the relatively small number of Republicans who caucused. It was not a big issue with the huge number of Democrats who participated. The tremendous Democratic turnout in Iowa (239,000!) is an ominous development. Iowa is a swing-state, and guess which way it's swinging?
The results in 2008 could make the 2006 disaster look like the good old days.
Huckabee? He carried a large portion of the heavy evangelical vote in Iowa. I don't really have a lot else to say about it. Obama received more than twice as many votes as Huckabees.
I don't believe Huckabee has any chance of launching a national strategy to win in a general election. Evangelicals are a mere one-third of the people who call themselves Republicans.
I foresee a vote for Huckabee in a presidential election of about 35%. That kind of poor performance would cost Republicans many, many seats in Congress.
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