GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!

A great resource for McCain bloggers and other supporters is Kathy's site at: http://mccainbloggerresources.blogspot.com. Please visit it.

Note: C-Span has honored me by asking that I participate in its coverage of the Pennsylvania Primary, and I've agreed to do so. Thanks C-Span! As many of you know, I have a blog that concentrates on the state: http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com.

Today (Wednesday), I received the following from Patrick Hynes, a key political operative for John McCain:

Gallup Poll: “Sizable proportion of Democrats” would vote for John McCain over Clinton or Obama . . .

Clinton supporters who would vote for McCain over Obama = 28%·

Obama supporters who would vote for McCain over Clinton = 19%

“The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November's election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.” http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx

If you'd like to receive regular updates straight from the McCain Campaign, please e-mail Patrick Hynes at: phynes@calypsocom.com. He's as good as it gets.

Later today I'll write on this blog about the national implications of the information from Gallup. On my three state blogs, I'll write about what the Gallup information means in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Jersey:

http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com/
http://ohioforjohnmccain.blogspot.com/, and
http://newjerseyforjohnmccain.blogspot.com/.

Why are these three battleground states so critical to McCain? Because if he can win two (or three) of them, he will almost certainly be the next President of the U.S. Your comments are always welcome.

The Gallup Poll's findings have national implications, particularly in the many battleground states, including: Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. John McCain has a decent chance to win all (or at least most) of those states, and if he does, he will win the presidency.

Between now and the election, McCain and the national Party should focus heavily on Florida and Michigan. The message will be that Democratic Party bosses (especially Howard Dean) have denied residents of those says a say in which candidate gets the nomination. Michigan and Florida Democrats are likely to desert the nominee (probably Obama) in droves. Remember, Hillary Clinton "won" both primaries -- with Obama being on the ballot only in Florida.

Remember, right now neither Clinton or Obama has the nomination. When one of them does become the nominee, many of them (as Gallup indicates) will desert the Party. That is very bad news for Democrats -- and good news for McCain.

If Obama does get the nomination, as seems likely, one thing McCain should do in the national campaign is to focus on states Hillary Clinton has won in the primary. He should even take a close look at two big states, California and New York, where a lot of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain.

REPULICAN PRIMARIES: MYSTERIES & ENIGMAS

Winston Churchill famously said about the old Soviet Union that it was "a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma." Winston should have seen the Republican primaries.

I'LL BE WRITING A LOT IN THE COMING DAYS ABOUT THE TRENDS IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES.

If McCain can win both Michigan and South Carolina, he presumably would end up winning the nomination. However, if Romney wins, it will make a confusing situation even more perplexing. If the race continues to be uncertain, then Florida should be critical. Stay tuned. I'll add more as the day (Tuesday) goes on and will have a new column tonight, after the MI results are clear.

If you have no clear idea who the Republican nominee will be, you're not alone.

Michigan Moves Up: Will There Be a Primary Next Week?

Stephen R. Maloney says... This situation (see below in italics) will change many things. Part of this is an effort by Mitt Romney (who's really from MI and has his national HQ there) to get a good start. Rudy is nipping at his heels in MI and there are some complicated factors going on (i.e., trying to get Rudy to spend money where he would prefer not to). The current primary schedule, with pro-Rudy Florida holding its primary on Jan. 29 and a lot of other pro-Rudy big states (New York, New Jersey, California) set to hold primaries on Feb. 5, strongly favored Giuliani. Seethe end of this piece for the Sarah Palin implications.

I found the following on http://race42008.com


Michigan to Hold Primary on 1/15/[2008]

“Michigan blows up the calendar” is the headline on Jonathan Martin’s blog over at the Politico, and that’s about the long and the short of it. Just when IA, NH, and SC thought they had everything worked out for a nice day swimming at the pool, both the Republican and Democrat parties of Michigan had to go and cannonball into the deep end and upset the water.

Both parties have agreed to hold primaries on January 15th, provided they can get the appropriate legislation through the MI state legislature. According to Martin, it’s “all but a done deal and is now just a matter of when the legislature moves the bill making it so.”

This will put additional pressure on Iowa to hold their caucuses in 2007, something Governor Culver has said he does not want to happen

Stephen R. Maloney adds: The first Republican presidential hopeful who can get a commitment -- even a favorable look or a winsome smile would do -- from the GOP's hottest political property, Sarah Palin, will be in a very good position. Are you listening Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney? You darn well should be. As for Sarah, keep the cell phone handy.