I expect Barack Obama to win the popular vote by perhaps three million ballots. However, that doesn't mean John McCain has no chance to win the presidency. How could that happen?
To emerge with a victory on Nov. 4, McCain needs to win Ohio, FL, PA, NC, and VA. Other than that, we're in great shape. :-)
However, we have a chance of winning those six states. If we lose one, I prefer it to be VA. McCain has a narrow window, but narrow is better than a brick wall. If McCain pulls off a big upset in a state, please God, let it be CO!
Critical point: If you hear a lot Tuesday night about the "Wilder Effect," you are allowed to cheer and have a couple of drinks. That refers to the time when Doug Wilder, of some African-American descent, was ahead in the polls by 9 points for Gov. of VA. In fact, he ended up winning by just under ONE percent. People fib to pollsters for much the same reason they hang up on telemarketers
I have a hunch Obama will get about 3-4% fewer votes (and McCain about 2-3% more) in battleground states than the polls suggest. If that doesn't happen, the Obaminable One probably wins. :-
(When I need sources of optimism, I look back to the Dem. Primaries, where Obama was supposed to win NH big (and he lost rather badly) and come close in PA (where he lost b y almost 10 points). Must have been "the Wilder Effect," right?
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