I was on BlogTalkRadio Thursday evening with Eric Dondero (host) and Murray Sabrin (Republican primary candidate for NJ U.S. Senate). The broadcast is avaiable (on podcast) at www.blogtalkradio.com/libertarian.
I urge you to listen (only partly because I'm on it and you get to hear my Rochester, NY accent) but mainly because Eric and I launched something you haven't heard recently: a ferocious defense of the Iraq War (and John McCain's position on it). Would love to hear your thoughts at TalkTop65@aol.com.or on the blog comments.
I'll write some on Friday after what Eric and I said. I remember saying that the primary goal of Islamic extremists, Sunni and Shia, in the MidEast "was to kill Jews -- all of them if possible" (and the secondary goal was "to kill Americans").
Eric noted -- and I agreed -- that one great reason to be fighting in the MidEast was "revenge for 9/11." He added that most soldiers are willing, if necessary, "to die for their country."We didn't exactly hold back. Dr. Sabin said 75% of New Jerseyites wanted U.S. withdrawal. I said that "Then 75% of New Jerseyites are just plain dead wrong." I added that if we fled the MidEast, al Qaeda would take over, oil would go $250 a barrel, and our economy would collapse.
On the show I called attention to the web sites of some superb Pennsylvania candidates: Melissa Hart, Toni Gilhooley, Michael Livingston, Marina Kats, and Tom Manion. Tom is a former Marine colonel. Sadly, his son Travis was killed in action in Iraq. Say a prayer for Tom and his son.
On the show, I read a statement by Republican congressional candidate Marina Kats. She said, "I am supporting the withdrawal of American troops as soon as possible, but only when it is safe to do it for us and our national security interests."I
In a story in The Philadelphia Bulletin, Marina suggested what America means to her, an emigre from Russia: "Ms. Kats differs with Mrs. Schwartz [her left-wing Democrat opponent] strongly on whether Washington should act presently to phase out the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. Speaking to The Bulletin from her law office in Feasterville, she described looking upon an American flag that was flown for a year and a half over the base of her colleague Christopher Hudock when he was called to active duty in Iraq. Upon returning, he gave Ms. Kats the flag to hang in her office. She describes it as a reminder of the imperative that America prevail."
Here are links to Marina's site, Tom's site, and those of other outstanding candidates.
Hart: http://www.peoplewithhart.com/
Gilhooley: http://www.gilhooleyforcongress.com/
Livingston: http://www.livingstonforcongress.com/
Kats: http://www.katsforcongress.com/
Manion: http://www.votemanion.com/
Media, candidates, activists, and others: Please feel free to post, reprint, forward, or discuss this piece. Candidates: I hope you'll establish a link on your own web site and tell your visitors that I'll be writing regularly about your campaign. The url for this blog is: http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com.
Eventually, our combined efforts should result in tens of thousands of "hits" on your web sites, which will generate various form of support, including contributions. "We must all hang together, or most assuredly, we will all hang separately." (B. Franklin) I receive no financial support or direction from any candidate. If you need to correspond via e-mail, you can reach me at: TalkTop65@aol.com.
Showing posts with label Michael Livingston. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Livingston. Show all posts
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
GOP Disaster Ahead? Not Really
I was on BlogTalkRadio Thursday evening with Eric Dondero (host) and Murray Sabrin (Republican primary candidate for NJ U.S. Senate). The broadcast is avaiable (on podcast) at www.blogtalkradio.com/libertarian. I urge you to listen (only partly because I'm on it and you get to hear my Rochester, NY accent) but mainly because Eric and I launched something you haven't heard recently: a ferocious defense of the Iraq War (and John McCain's position on it). Would love to hear your thoughts at TalkTop65@aol.com. On the show I called attention to the web sites of Melissa Hart, Toni Gilhooley, Michael Livingston, Marina Kats, and Tom Manion. Tom is a former Marine colonel. Sadly, his son Travis was killed in action in Iraq. Say a prayer for Tom and his son.
Hart: http://www.peoplewithhart.com/
Gilhooley: http://www.gilhooleyforcongress.com/
Livingston: http://www.livingstonforcongress.com/
Kats: http://www.katsforcongress.com/.
Manion: http://www.votemanion.com/
Please take a few minutes to visit the web sites of these wonderful candidates -- and offer them whatever support you can provide. Thanks
Media, candidates, activists, and others: Please feel free to post, reprint, forward, or discuss this piece. Candidates: I hope you'll establish a link on your own web site and tell your visitors that I'll be writing regularly about your campaign. The url for this blog is: http://camp2008victorya.blogspot.com. Eventually, our combined efforts should result in tens of thousands of "hits" on your web site, which will generate various form of support, including contributions. "We must all hang together, or most assuredly, we will all hang separately." (B. Franklin) I receive no financial support or direction from any candidate. If you need to correspond via e-mail, you can reach me at: TalkTop65@aol.com.
Today, I’m writing broadly about the following piece from http://www.politico.com/:
"GOP Leaders Warn of Election Disaster — Shell-shocked House Republicans got warnings from leaders past and present Tuesday: Your party’s message isn’t good enough to prevent disaster in November, and neither is the NRCC’s [National Republican Congressional Committee's] money. The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama or anti-Rev. Wright campaign, they are simply going to fail. More… (US Elections 2008)"
The article's message is either poppycock or balderdash. I haven't figured out which. A candidate's "brand" is not the Party. Rather, it is the candidate herself or himself. Also, if those supposed "leaders" had done a better job leading, well, things would be better.
If our “leaders” (former and present) are people like Don Young (political architect of the “Bridge to Nowhere”), Tom DeLay, Mark Foley, Newt-of-many-wives and Tom Reynolds (who had to spend $5.2 million to get reelected in a solidly Republican district), well we can live without leaders like them.
The real leaders of the Republican Party are people like Bonnie West of Washington, PA, Sharon Caliendo of Norman, Oklahoma, Adam Brickley of Colorado Springs, and Brad Marston of Boston, Massachusetts. They’re out there this year – as in the past – busting their butts to send great candidates to Washington, DC. You’ve never heard of them perhaps, but you’ve seen the political fruits of their labors.
Political operative Sharon Caliendo is one of the main reasons Oklahoma's Dr. Tom Coburn is in the U.S. Senate – and not back practicing gynecology. Adam Brickley almost single-handedly engineering the rise of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to national prominence and vice-presidential consideration. Brad Marston helped resuscitate what appeared to be the stone-dead campaign of John McCain. Bonnie West has been a key factor in revitalizing the Republican Party in a critical area of western Pennsylvania.
I wouldn’t trade one of them for four Tom DeLays.There's much hand-wringing lately over the loss of Republican candidate Woody Jenkins in a supposedly "safe" election in Louisiana. As Karl Rove put it Tuesday night, "Look, Woody Jenkins [who's lost more elections than Britney Spears has misplaced underwear] is a fine man, but he's terrible candidate." I support only exceptional candidates.
As for Woody's loss, the best way to get candidates for congressional races is NOT to "round up all the usual suspects." Instead, get people who have great integrity and a real passion for the voters of their district. They usually win – later if not sooner.
Long-time readers will know that I regularly rage against the NRCC for not giving Diana Irey a dime. She was the Republican candidate who ran so ferociously and well against “The Prince of Pork,” John Murtha. It can be a thankless task running against someone like Murtha who has sold his soul to every lobbyist with a bag-full of cash.
Diana raised $856,000 on her own. She got contributions from all 50 states. Her total number of contributors was 7,000 – significantly more than Murtha’s total, although he had many more large donors. Many of those who donated to Diana’s campaign were giving money for the first time to a political candidate.
The Diana Lynn Ireys of the world are the future of the Republican Party. She is a rock of integrity, a devoted Christian who has “a love affair with humanity.” She’s teenie (5 foot, 100 pounds) but as an orator she outdoes Barack Obama.
At the same time Diana was getting zip from the national Republican establishment, Mark Foley – prior to the nasty e-mails scandal – had accumulated a campaign war chest of, oh, $2 million. I assume Mark was not one of the “leaders” cited by Politico.com.
How can good Republican candidates – in spite of Politco’s ominous message – win this year? A while back, Sharon Caliendo sent me her analysis of how Mary Fallin, a congresswoman from the Oklahoma City area (5th district) won.
Some people, even the brilliant Michael Barone, portray Mary’s district as a Republican “slam-dunk.” But is it really? In fact, the district is two-third white – and one-third other. In fact, it sounds suspiciously like one of those districts where Democrats run unopposed election cycle after election cycle.
Sharon said that Mary went door-to-door month after month. She wore out several pairs of shoes. She raised a good deal of money, mainly because she would not take “no” for an answer. She ended up winning by 60% to 37% in what was supposedly (and actually) a horrible year for Republicans.
I am working very hard to ensure that John McCain wins the 21 electoral votes of Pennsylvania, which probably will ensure that he wins the presidency.
I’m also doing everything in my power to ensure that Melissa Hart wins back her congressional seat in western Pennsylvania, that Toni Gilhooley wins her uphill battle in Harrisburg and parts east, and that Marina Kats defeats the indescribably awful Allyson Schwartz in Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia. I’m also supporting Michael Livingston in a very difficult race in Philadelphia.
These three women will come nowhere near outspending their opponents, but they will outwork them and outsmart them. Gee, what do we have to do to restore the Republican “brand?” We need to go out with superior candidates – like Melissa, Toni, Michael, and Marina – and advance the process of winning elections.
Sharon Caliendo sent the following comment about the NRCC: "There was another seat that they wasted tons of money on before this one too. I want to go back to the days where we supported our Congressional candidates and not an organization like the NRCC that plays favorites. Campaigns were less expensive then too and the candidates elected were not beholding to the powers at be at NRCC."
Hart: http://www.peoplewithhart.com/
Gilhooley: http://www.gilhooleyforcongress.com/
Livingston: http://www.livingstonforcongress.com/
Kats: http://www.katsforcongress.com/.
Manion: http://www.votemanion.com/
Please take a few minutes to visit the web sites of these wonderful candidates -- and offer them whatever support you can provide. Thanks
Media, candidates, activists, and others: Please feel free to post, reprint, forward, or discuss this piece. Candidates: I hope you'll establish a link on your own web site and tell your visitors that I'll be writing regularly about your campaign. The url for this blog is: http://camp2008victorya.blogspot.com. Eventually, our combined efforts should result in tens of thousands of "hits" on your web site, which will generate various form of support, including contributions. "We must all hang together, or most assuredly, we will all hang separately." (B. Franklin) I receive no financial support or direction from any candidate. If you need to correspond via e-mail, you can reach me at: TalkTop65@aol.com.
Today, I’m writing broadly about the following piece from http://www.politico.com/:
"GOP Leaders Warn of Election Disaster — Shell-shocked House Republicans got warnings from leaders past and present Tuesday: Your party’s message isn’t good enough to prevent disaster in November, and neither is the NRCC’s [National Republican Congressional Committee's] money. The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama or anti-Rev. Wright campaign, they are simply going to fail. More… (US Elections 2008)"
The article's message is either poppycock or balderdash. I haven't figured out which. A candidate's "brand" is not the Party. Rather, it is the candidate herself or himself. Also, if those supposed "leaders" had done a better job leading, well, things would be better.
If our “leaders” (former and present) are people like Don Young (political architect of the “Bridge to Nowhere”), Tom DeLay, Mark Foley, Newt-of-many-wives and Tom Reynolds (who had to spend $5.2 million to get reelected in a solidly Republican district), well we can live without leaders like them.
The real leaders of the Republican Party are people like Bonnie West of Washington, PA, Sharon Caliendo of Norman, Oklahoma, Adam Brickley of Colorado Springs, and Brad Marston of Boston, Massachusetts. They’re out there this year – as in the past – busting their butts to send great candidates to Washington, DC. You’ve never heard of them perhaps, but you’ve seen the political fruits of their labors.
Political operative Sharon Caliendo is one of the main reasons Oklahoma's Dr. Tom Coburn is in the U.S. Senate – and not back practicing gynecology. Adam Brickley almost single-handedly engineering the rise of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to national prominence and vice-presidential consideration. Brad Marston helped resuscitate what appeared to be the stone-dead campaign of John McCain. Bonnie West has been a key factor in revitalizing the Republican Party in a critical area of western Pennsylvania.
I wouldn’t trade one of them for four Tom DeLays.There's much hand-wringing lately over the loss of Republican candidate Woody Jenkins in a supposedly "safe" election in Louisiana. As Karl Rove put it Tuesday night, "Look, Woody Jenkins [who's lost more elections than Britney Spears has misplaced underwear] is a fine man, but he's terrible candidate." I support only exceptional candidates.
As for Woody's loss, the best way to get candidates for congressional races is NOT to "round up all the usual suspects." Instead, get people who have great integrity and a real passion for the voters of their district. They usually win – later if not sooner.
Long-time readers will know that I regularly rage against the NRCC for not giving Diana Irey a dime. She was the Republican candidate who ran so ferociously and well against “The Prince of Pork,” John Murtha. It can be a thankless task running against someone like Murtha who has sold his soul to every lobbyist with a bag-full of cash.
Diana raised $856,000 on her own. She got contributions from all 50 states. Her total number of contributors was 7,000 – significantly more than Murtha’s total, although he had many more large donors. Many of those who donated to Diana’s campaign were giving money for the first time to a political candidate.
The Diana Lynn Ireys of the world are the future of the Republican Party. She is a rock of integrity, a devoted Christian who has “a love affair with humanity.” She’s teenie (5 foot, 100 pounds) but as an orator she outdoes Barack Obama.
At the same time Diana was getting zip from the national Republican establishment, Mark Foley – prior to the nasty e-mails scandal – had accumulated a campaign war chest of, oh, $2 million. I assume Mark was not one of the “leaders” cited by Politico.com.
How can good Republican candidates – in spite of Politco’s ominous message – win this year? A while back, Sharon Caliendo sent me her analysis of how Mary Fallin, a congresswoman from the Oklahoma City area (5th district) won.
Some people, even the brilliant Michael Barone, portray Mary’s district as a Republican “slam-dunk.” But is it really? In fact, the district is two-third white – and one-third other. In fact, it sounds suspiciously like one of those districts where Democrats run unopposed election cycle after election cycle.
Sharon said that Mary went door-to-door month after month. She wore out several pairs of shoes. She raised a good deal of money, mainly because she would not take “no” for an answer. She ended up winning by 60% to 37% in what was supposedly (and actually) a horrible year for Republicans.
I am working very hard to ensure that John McCain wins the 21 electoral votes of Pennsylvania, which probably will ensure that he wins the presidency.
I’m also doing everything in my power to ensure that Melissa Hart wins back her congressional seat in western Pennsylvania, that Toni Gilhooley wins her uphill battle in Harrisburg and parts east, and that Marina Kats defeats the indescribably awful Allyson Schwartz in Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia. I’m also supporting Michael Livingston in a very difficult race in Philadelphia.
These three women will come nowhere near outspending their opponents, but they will outwork them and outsmart them. Gee, what do we have to do to restore the Republican “brand?” We need to go out with superior candidates – like Melissa, Toni, Michael, and Marina – and advance the process of winning elections.
Sharon Caliendo sent the following comment about the NRCC: "There was another seat that they wasted tons of money on before this one too. I want to go back to the days where we supported our Congressional candidates and not an organization like the NRCC that plays favorites. Campaigns were less expensive then too and the candidates elected were not beholding to the powers at be at NRCC."
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Great Candidates, Great Investments
Question: Is it possible that, as 54% of the American people believe, that Barack Obama shared a least some views with Rev. Jeremiah Wright?
Answer: My greatest fear is that he shares many such views. Michelle Obama has said, "In 2008 America is a mean place" and that she has only become "proud of [her] country" as her husband has become successful in the primaries. Frankly, does Obama agree with his wife? Who knows? Right now, Obama looks dispirited and unelectable.
Since this is a national blog -- one that talks a lot about the presidential race -- why have I been discussing congressional races in Pennsylvania? I'm doing so because it's essential that McCain, if he wins on Nov. 4, have enough Republicans in Congress to keep him from having a failed presidency. If he has to depend on Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, then God save the republic.
As you've been hearing for some time, Pennsylvania, where I live, will be a crucial battleground in this year's election. If John McCain wins the Keystone State, it's probable he will be the next President. For McCain to win, the Republican Party must get out the vote. That will require a lot of organization at the district (congressional), county, and local levels. Right now, the organizational capacity is questionable.
The GOP in Pennsylvania -- and other states -- is still reeling from the heavy losses in 2006. The stench from the Mark Foley, Duke Cunningham, and Bob Ney scandals has not yet fully abated.
I've been supporting several Republican candidates between I believe they and John McCain can build upon one another's strength. If those candidates flounder, it will hurt the Republican cause in general and our presidential hopes in particular.
The candidates I've endorsed include Melissa Hart (in the 4th district -- where I reside -- opposing Democrat incumbent Jason Altmire); Marina Kats (in the 13th district, opposing Democrat incumbent Allyson Schwartz); Toni Gilhooley (in the 17th district, opposing Democrat incumbent Tim Holden); and Michael Livingston (in the 2d district, opposing Democrat incumbent Chaka Fattah).
If I can read the national Republican Party's mind -- and, in this single case, I believe I can -- they believe Melissa Hart almost certainly will win. Frankly, Melissa's loss in 2006 was a fluke, a result of a temporary anti-Republican tidal wave.
What does the national GOP think about the prospects for the other candidates, Kats, Gilhooley, and Livingston? They probably believe all three will lose. They might be right in all three instances, but -- at the beginning of May -- there's no certainly about next November's results.
The only thing worse than losing a congressional race -- and it's much worse -- is to leave the race uncontested. Frankly, we Republicans have to stop conceding 100-plus seats to the Democrats. That's an obvious point we all need to get across to the national Party.
Yes, Kats and Gilhooley are currently big underdogs in their races. But I've told them both that I believe, if they do just about everything right, they can win. I'm not stupid, and I know the odds, but Gilhooley and Kats are going build great support in their districts. Both of them, especially Gilhooley, are going to benefit from McCain's strong showing in the state. As for Kats, her youth intelligence, and patriotism are going to contrast sharply with Schwartz, who has none of those qualities.
As for Michael Livingston, he will gains tens of thousands of votes more than any Republican has in his district. He's not waging what is known as a "starter campaign," but he is establishing a foundation that the GOP has never had in the the 2d district. Livingston, a tax attorney and law professor, is a great candidate -- while his opponent, Fattah, is an awful one.
Right now (and again, this is my belief), the national Republican Party, which has millions on hand, is preparing to give Livingston, Kats, and Gilhooley a grand total of zero dollars and zero cents. Why? Because they don't believe they can win.
It's something like the old line about getting a loan from the bank. If you really need the money, the bank won't give it to you. If you don't need it, they'll give you all you ask for.
In 2006, my friend and political ally Diana Lynn Irey ran against John Murtha. In the election, Diana got nearly 80,000 votes in a district where Republicans were lucky to get 40,000. She raised $856,000. She had more individual contributors (7,000) than Murtha. She brought many people -- a lot of them young -- into Republican politics.
What did Diana get from the national Republicans -- and for that matter, from the state Republicans? Basically, she got their best wishes. But as for the check, well, it was never in the mail.
Contrast Diana's situation with that of Rep. Tom Reynolds, a member of the Republican leadership and congressman from a "safe" Republican district in upstate New York (Buffalo suburbs to Rochester suburbs). Historically, it's a district where it's nearly impossible for a Republican to lose. Reynolds, unfortunately, almost accomplished the impossible.
He won 52% to 48% in 2006 in a district where a Republican should win by at least 60% to 40%. How much did it cost him to win? Almost $5.3 million dollars, an almost unimaginable sum. A good chunk of his campaign war chest came from the national Republican Party.
Look at it this way: Reynold got 30,000 more votes in his district than Irey got in hers. He spent nearly $50 per vote. In contrast, Irey spent about $11 per vote. (Just FYI, Murtha spent roughly $28 per vote.) If Diana had been able to spend, say, $22 a vote guess who might just have won the election against Murtha?
As for the Tom Reynolds of the world, they have access to huge amounts of campaign cash. If they need lots of cash from the national Party, then they're bad investments. Money sent to them is a form of political CPR.
I'm recommending that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) give Gilhooley and Kats at least $10,000 up front. I'm also recommending that they give Livingston, more of a longshot, $5,000. When the three candidates use the money to build strong organizations -- and thus go up in the polls -- the NRCC should give them more money. In politics as in life, money begets money.
In its support of candidates, the NRCC doesn't seem to favor organizational development. Instead, it seems to favor having candidates in trouble spend hundreds of thousands on TV ads. Generally, at least in recent months, those candidates seem to lose.In politics, that's not a great way to run -- or to build -- a Party.
Here's a bulletin to national Republicans: TV ads, while helpful with name recognition, don't work nearly as well as they once did. In support of that position, I point to one Barack Obama. In the Pennsylvania primary, Obama broke all records for television commercials. He spent $10 million, and had a total of nearly 7,000 ads in the state. For all that, he lost to Mrs. Clinton by 9.2%.
There are reasons TV ads don't work as well now as they did a decade ago, but I'll save that subject for another day.Frankly, the next election does not, if we lose, signify the end of the world as we know it. When we have great candidates -- as we do with Gilhooley, Kats, and Livingston, we need to support them.
Consider this: In 1974 and 1976, novice candidate Newt Gingrich lost his first two races for Congress. In 1978, he finally won. Sixteen years later he was Speaker of the House.
The future of the Republican Party rests with great candidates like Irey, Hart, Kats, Gilhooley, and Livingston. I fully expect more than one of them to win on November 4. And remember, I'm the one who called Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania win -- almost down to the precise decimal point.
Note: If you want to contribute to or otherwise support the Republican candidates I've noted, click on the links above. The exception is Marina Kats, whom you can support by clicking on her link, but whose contributions should go via snail mail to:
Kats For Congress
PO Box 91
Huntingdon Valley, PA 19006
Answer: My greatest fear is that he shares many such views. Michelle Obama has said, "In 2008 America is a mean place" and that she has only become "proud of [her] country" as her husband has become successful in the primaries. Frankly, does Obama agree with his wife? Who knows? Right now, Obama looks dispirited and unelectable.
Since this is a national blog -- one that talks a lot about the presidential race -- why have I been discussing congressional races in Pennsylvania? I'm doing so because it's essential that McCain, if he wins on Nov. 4, have enough Republicans in Congress to keep him from having a failed presidency. If he has to depend on Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, then God save the republic.
As you've been hearing for some time, Pennsylvania, where I live, will be a crucial battleground in this year's election. If John McCain wins the Keystone State, it's probable he will be the next President. For McCain to win, the Republican Party must get out the vote. That will require a lot of organization at the district (congressional), county, and local levels. Right now, the organizational capacity is questionable.
The GOP in Pennsylvania -- and other states -- is still reeling from the heavy losses in 2006. The stench from the Mark Foley, Duke Cunningham, and Bob Ney scandals has not yet fully abated.
I've been supporting several Republican candidates between I believe they and John McCain can build upon one another's strength. If those candidates flounder, it will hurt the Republican cause in general and our presidential hopes in particular.
The candidates I've endorsed include Melissa Hart (in the 4th district -- where I reside -- opposing Democrat incumbent Jason Altmire); Marina Kats (in the 13th district, opposing Democrat incumbent Allyson Schwartz); Toni Gilhooley (in the 17th district, opposing Democrat incumbent Tim Holden); and Michael Livingston (in the 2d district, opposing Democrat incumbent Chaka Fattah).
If I can read the national Republican Party's mind -- and, in this single case, I believe I can -- they believe Melissa Hart almost certainly will win. Frankly, Melissa's loss in 2006 was a fluke, a result of a temporary anti-Republican tidal wave.
What does the national GOP think about the prospects for the other candidates, Kats, Gilhooley, and Livingston? They probably believe all three will lose. They might be right in all three instances, but -- at the beginning of May -- there's no certainly about next November's results.
The only thing worse than losing a congressional race -- and it's much worse -- is to leave the race uncontested. Frankly, we Republicans have to stop conceding 100-plus seats to the Democrats. That's an obvious point we all need to get across to the national Party.
Yes, Kats and Gilhooley are currently big underdogs in their races. But I've told them both that I believe, if they do just about everything right, they can win. I'm not stupid, and I know the odds, but Gilhooley and Kats are going build great support in their districts. Both of them, especially Gilhooley, are going to benefit from McCain's strong showing in the state. As for Kats, her youth intelligence, and patriotism are going to contrast sharply with Schwartz, who has none of those qualities.
As for Michael Livingston, he will gains tens of thousands of votes more than any Republican has in his district. He's not waging what is known as a "starter campaign," but he is establishing a foundation that the GOP has never had in the the 2d district. Livingston, a tax attorney and law professor, is a great candidate -- while his opponent, Fattah, is an awful one.
Right now (and again, this is my belief), the national Republican Party, which has millions on hand, is preparing to give Livingston, Kats, and Gilhooley a grand total of zero dollars and zero cents. Why? Because they don't believe they can win.
It's something like the old line about getting a loan from the bank. If you really need the money, the bank won't give it to you. If you don't need it, they'll give you all you ask for.
In 2006, my friend and political ally Diana Lynn Irey ran against John Murtha. In the election, Diana got nearly 80,000 votes in a district where Republicans were lucky to get 40,000. She raised $856,000. She had more individual contributors (7,000) than Murtha. She brought many people -- a lot of them young -- into Republican politics.
What did Diana get from the national Republicans -- and for that matter, from the state Republicans? Basically, she got their best wishes. But as for the check, well, it was never in the mail.
Contrast Diana's situation with that of Rep. Tom Reynolds, a member of the Republican leadership and congressman from a "safe" Republican district in upstate New York (Buffalo suburbs to Rochester suburbs). Historically, it's a district where it's nearly impossible for a Republican to lose. Reynolds, unfortunately, almost accomplished the impossible.
He won 52% to 48% in 2006 in a district where a Republican should win by at least 60% to 40%. How much did it cost him to win? Almost $5.3 million dollars, an almost unimaginable sum. A good chunk of his campaign war chest came from the national Republican Party.
Look at it this way: Reynold got 30,000 more votes in his district than Irey got in hers. He spent nearly $50 per vote. In contrast, Irey spent about $11 per vote. (Just FYI, Murtha spent roughly $28 per vote.) If Diana had been able to spend, say, $22 a vote guess who might just have won the election against Murtha?
As for the Tom Reynolds of the world, they have access to huge amounts of campaign cash. If they need lots of cash from the national Party, then they're bad investments. Money sent to them is a form of political CPR.
I'm recommending that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) give Gilhooley and Kats at least $10,000 up front. I'm also recommending that they give Livingston, more of a longshot, $5,000. When the three candidates use the money to build strong organizations -- and thus go up in the polls -- the NRCC should give them more money. In politics as in life, money begets money.
In its support of candidates, the NRCC doesn't seem to favor organizational development. Instead, it seems to favor having candidates in trouble spend hundreds of thousands on TV ads. Generally, at least in recent months, those candidates seem to lose.In politics, that's not a great way to run -- or to build -- a Party.
Here's a bulletin to national Republicans: TV ads, while helpful with name recognition, don't work nearly as well as they once did. In support of that position, I point to one Barack Obama. In the Pennsylvania primary, Obama broke all records for television commercials. He spent $10 million, and had a total of nearly 7,000 ads in the state. For all that, he lost to Mrs. Clinton by 9.2%.
There are reasons TV ads don't work as well now as they did a decade ago, but I'll save that subject for another day.Frankly, the next election does not, if we lose, signify the end of the world as we know it. When we have great candidates -- as we do with Gilhooley, Kats, and Livingston, we need to support them.
Consider this: In 1974 and 1976, novice candidate Newt Gingrich lost his first two races for Congress. In 1978, he finally won. Sixteen years later he was Speaker of the House.
The future of the Republican Party rests with great candidates like Irey, Hart, Kats, Gilhooley, and Livingston. I fully expect more than one of them to win on November 4. And remember, I'm the one who called Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania win -- almost down to the precise decimal point.
Note: If you want to contribute to or otherwise support the Republican candidates I've noted, click on the links above. The exception is Marina Kats, whom you can support by clicking on her link, but whose contributions should go via snail mail to:
Kats For Congress
PO Box 91
Huntingdon Valley, PA 19006
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Conservatives, Libertarians, Republicans: Send Money
NOTE: ANY MEDIA OUTLET, CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE OR BLOGGER WHO WOULD LIKE TO USE ALL OR PART OF THE MATERIAL ON THIS SITE IS WELCOME TO DO SO. JUST GIVE A LINK TO THE SITE. Another column here will be up Sunday afternoon. Thanks for visiting
Note: On my Pennsylvania blog (http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com) on Saturday night I've begun writing about one of America's worst congressmen, Chaka Fattah, a Democrat from Philadelphia. Please visit.
"Americans [unlike every other nation in the world] identify ourselves by fidelity to certain political principles." (Justice Antonin Scalia)
This weekend -- and continuing well into next week -- I'll be writing about my favorite congressional candidates, some of them mainly conservative, some mainly libertarian, but all of them Republicans with much in common. These candidates need --and eminently deserve -- your political, financial, and moral support. They include:
Note: On my Pennsylvania blog (http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com) on Saturday night I've begun writing about one of America's worst congressmen, Chaka Fattah, a Democrat from Philadelphia. Please visit.
"Americans [unlike every other nation in the world] identify ourselves by fidelity to certain political principles." (Justice Antonin Scalia)
This weekend -- and continuing well into next week -- I'll be writing about my favorite congressional candidates, some of them mainly conservative, some mainly libertarian, but all of them Republicans with much in common. These candidates need --and eminently deserve -- your political, financial, and moral support. They include:
- Melissa Hart, who lost her race for re-election in 2006 in PA's 4th congressional district (west and north of Pittsburgh) and is running again to regain it. Melissa is a slight favorite to win, mainly because John McCain should carry the district by a huge margin -- and thus help propel Melissa to victory. I've written a lot about Melissa (who was -- and will be -- my congressional representative) and will write a great deal more.
- Toni Gilhooley, a 25-year-veteran of the Pennsylvania State Police who is running against Democratic incumbent Tim Holden in Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district (Harrisburg and surrounding communities). Toni is a big underdog, but as I'll explain, she has the drive and personal characteristics needed to achieve an upset.
- Marina Kats, an attorney and an immigrant from Russia, who's running against extreme leftist Allyson Schwartz, in Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district (Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia). I've said -- humorously but accurately -- that Marina is the most beautiful young woman ever to run for Congress. She's also an underdog, but with the national attention her campaign will receive. she has a chance to do the impossible: beat militant leftist Allyson Schwartz.
- Michael Livingston, a law professor and tax expert, who's running against Democratic incumbent Chaka Fattah in Pennsylvania's 2d congressional district (Philadelphia). A true libertarian Republican (Marina also fits that definition), Michael will wage a strong campaign against an opponent who currently appears to be unbeatable. I'll be writing a lot more about Michael in the coming months.
What do I wish YOU would do right now? I hope you'll click on the candidates' names above, go to their web sites, learn about them, and make at least a small donation to their campaigns (perhaps $10 or, if you can afford it, $200 or more).
Granted, very few Americans ever donate to a political campaign -- perhaps 2% of the population. However, if you don't contribute to candidates you believe in, they have little chance of getting their message across. Everyone reading this piece has one vote, but those who do contribute are leveraging (increasing) their influence on the election.
In 2006, I worked hard on the campaign of Republican Diana Lynn Irey, who ran against "The Prince of Pork," John Murtha. Diana didn't win the election, but she was able to get support from 7,000 donors. In fact, she had many more individual contributors than Murtha, one of the most powerful -- and objectionable -- individuals in the U.S. Congress. Diana established a foundation for the future, hers and the Republican Party's in Pennsylvania.
Yesterday, Friday, I had a long phone conversation with Toni Gilhooley. She is an absolutely remarkable woman. Trust me, Toni is exactly the kind of individual we need in the House of Representatives. Her opponent, Tim Holden, passes himself off as a "conservative Democrat," which is something like claiming to be "the world's tallest midget."
In fact, one of the first things Holden did in the current Congress was to vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. Of course, in that single action Holden -- the supposed "conservative" -- ensured that left-wing Democrats would head every important committee. He also ensured that no "conservative" -- or even moderate -- legislation would ever see the light of day.
That's a little detail Tim Holden withholds from his constituents. It's a detail Toni Gilhooley MUST get across to 17th district voters if she hopes to win. In other words, she has to drive home the point that Tim Holden, amiable as he seems to be, is a total impostor. In return, the voters have to consider the real possibility that Holden is not the man they've thought he was.
Also, anyone who is going to vote for John McCain in the 17th -- and most people will -- must realize that they're cancelling out their vote if they cast a ballot for Holden.
In the case of Marina Kats, her opponent, Allyson Schwartz raises a massive amount of campaign funds -- more than $7 million in the last two election cycles. Who donates to Schwartz? The most left-wing political action committees and individuals in the U.S. People who contribute to Schwartz take a dim view of America's role as a powerful, dynamic force on the world stage. (If you'd like to take a look at Schwartz's contributors, go to http://www.openscrets.org/ and type in the name "Schwartz." You'll recognize a lot of the names.
What kind of person is Marina Kats, a woman born in Russia and now seen by many as an embodiment of The American Dream? Here's how The Philadelphia Bulletin described her:
"Ms. Kats differs with Mrs. Schwartz strongly on whether Washington should act presently to phase out the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. Speaking to The Bulletin from her law office in Feasterville, she described looking upon an American flag that was flown for a year and a half over the base of her colleague Christopher Hudock when he was called to active duty in Iraq. Upon returning, he gave Ms. Kats the flag to hang in her office. She describes it as a reminder of the imperative that America prevail."
Kats says, "I am supporting the withdrawal of American troops as soon as possible, but only when it is safe to do it for us and our national security interests."
In contrast, Allyson Schwartz favors a timetable for Iraq withdrawal, with all the bloodshed, political chaos, and national security threats that would result. Ms. Schwartz doesn't live in a world where her strongest supporters wear flag pins and send their sons and daughters off to defend America. Instead, she lives in world dominated by polls and irritated by America's exceptional role in world history.
Yes, that's harsh, but is there any evidence it's untrue?
If Schwartz shares Kats's strong felling about the American flag, she has kept them a secret. It's apparently not a subject she discusses, even though her own immigrant background is not all that dissimilar from Kats's. One sign of Schwartz's thinking on the subject is that she voted against the amendment to prohibit flag-burning.
If you want American politics to change for the better, I suggest the way to bring that about is to support Marina Kats, Toni Gilhooley, Melissa Hart, and Michael Livingston. They need votes and your best wishes -- but most of all at this crucial moment, they need your money to get across their compelling messages
(Here's the link to the article in The Bulletin. I urge you to read it:)
http://www.thebulletin.us/site/news.cfm?newsid=19335675&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=618959&rfi=6
Note: If you'd like to contribute to Hart, Gilhooley, and Livingston, you can do so at their web sites. Marina Kats has a preliminary web site up, but until the permanent one is available in a few days, you can send a check to her at:
Kats for Congress
PO Box 91
Huntingdon Valley, PA 19006
I hope every blogger or other online communicator will either reprint this column or pass it along to friends and family members.
Note: Different Republican candidates will not agree on every issue. The views expressed here are my own. The candidates can speak for themselves when it comes to specific issues. I receive no financial assistance or direction from any candidate endorsed here.
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