What Sarah Palin Must Do

As a 20-year-old college student, Adam Brickley of Colorado Springs launched the Draft Palin for VP movement. Late in August Adam's "impossible dream" came true. He blogs at: http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/. The following is his advice to Sarah Palin:

WHAT I WANT TO SEE FROM GOVERNOR PALIN

1. Don't pay much attention to 2012 speculation and focus on being Governor. Cement yourself as a presence on the national scene, but top priority is getting that gasline built (thereby giving yourself another major accomplishment as Governor and potentially lowering energy prices down here in the lower 48...you can run on that in 2012)

2. Launch "SarahPAC" as soon as possible. You are a force to be reckoned with when it comes to fundraising potential, and lots of people will be happy to give you lots of cash to distribute to candidates around the country (this also gives you an excuse to occasionally go on campaign trips). You can use SarahPAC (or whatever you decide to call it) to establish a reputation for helping other Republicans win, and gain some loyalty from the Congressmen that you want to endorse your eventual candidacy.

3. Write a bestseller. The subject is irrelevant, though including a good deal of policy talk would probably be helpful. The American public needs to know that you are an intelligent and capable leader, so show them how smart you are. Plus, it never hurts to have to do a bunch of interviews to promote your new book, and if you wrote on energy policy, you could establish yourself as a "preeminent authority" on the subject.

4. DO NOT RUN FOR THE U.S. SENATE. You need to stay far away from Washington and continue to build your resume (and ensure that you get the credit for that shiny new gasline). If you want to run for something, run for re-election.

Gov. Sarah Palin: America's Hope

It's not exactly a secret that I have a new blog -- http://draftpalin2012.blogspot.com/ -- that I hope to keep going through Inauguration Day, 2013. On that day, the woman above should be be installed as America's first female President. If you want to be a part of that process, please come to the DraftPalin2012 site and learn what you can do to make it all happen. In the future, this Campaign2008VictoryA site will continue. I'll cross-post columns on another site: http://stevemaloneygop.blogspot.com/. I appreciate the 150,000-plus hits this site has had, and I hope you all keep returning.

If we have a million-plus activists, "boots on the ground," by 2011 -- including your boots -- we can take the next election. We can't win it by hoping. We can win it by working . . . organizing . . . and communicating.

Sarah, Todd Palin Looking Great

I hope you'll go to my brand-new blog and see some superb photos of Todd and Sarah Palin. Tomorrow mornin (Tuesday), I'll be writing about Pennsylvania and why I believe McCain-Palin will win the state in a very close race. Above are some samples of the photos you'll see at http://draftpalin2012.blogspot.com/.

How McCain Can Win Election

Sarah Palin: Is this the face of America's next Vice President. (Note: Please visit -- and bookmark -- my new site by clicking on the following: http://draftpalin2012.blogspot.com.)


I expect Barack Obama to win the popular vote by perhaps three million ballots. However, that doesn't mean John McCain has no chance to win the presidency. How could that happen?

To emerge with a victory on Nov. 4, McCain needs to win Ohio, FL, PA, NC, and VA. Other than that, we're in great shape. :-)

However, we have a chance of winning those six states. If we lose one, I prefer it to be VA. McCain has a narrow window, but narrow is better than a brick wall. If McCain pulls off a big upset in a state, please God, let it be CO!

Critical point: If you hear a lot Tuesday night about the "Wilder Effect," you are allowed to cheer and have a couple of drinks. That refers to the time when Doug Wilder, of some African-American descent, was ahead in the polls by 9 points for Gov. of VA. In fact, he ended up winning by just under ONE percent. People fib to pollsters for much the same reason they hang up on telemarketers

I have a hunch Obama will get about 3-4% fewer votes (and McCain about 2-3% more) in battleground states than the polls suggest. If that doesn't happen, the Obaminable One probably wins. :-

(When I need sources of optimism, I look back to the Dem. Primaries, where Obama was supposed to win NH big (and he lost rather badly) and come close in PA (where he lost b y almost 10 points). Must have been "the Wilder Effect," right?

Elizabeth Hasselbeck from "The View" joins Sarah Palin on the campaign trail. (Return tomorrow a.m. for important predictions on the election. Please scroll down one column to participate in an important psych0/political test from NYU.)

Important NYU Political-Psychological Study

I received the following request from Benjamin Cross, a psychology professor at NYU. I believe this is an important undertaking, and I'm going to participate. I hope you will also.

I am writing you on behalf of a research team from the Psychology Department at New York University, in the hopes that you might be able to help us with our timely and important research about the cognitive bases of electoral decision-making. We would be very grateful to you if you could possibly help us recruit politically inclined respondents to our survey by posting to your blog the link to the online survey we are conducting as part of this research. We began data collection in September, after the Vice-Presidential candidates were announced, but we are particularly interested in how people respond to the candidates when Election Day is around the corner.

Here is the link to the survey: http://www.psychsurveys.org/brietruesdell/2008elections

The Gallup Poll is Misleading

About the new Gallup Poll showing Obama ahead NATIONALLY among likely voters by 2% and ahead by a somewhat higher percentage among registered voters (in the "expanded" model):

I'll be writing more about Gallup's so-called "expanded" model, which contains some major flaws. The expanded model looks for a very high turnout among the "new" Democratic voters. We heard the same thing in 2004, where there was high Democratic turnout -- which was offset by extremely high Republican turnout.

We also heard in 2004 (from Gallup and others) that 8 out-of-9 Independent voters were breaking for Kerry, WHICH TURNED OUT TO BE ABSOLUTELY UNTRUE.

In 2004, Gallup also said Bush would win PA; he didn't; and that Kerry would win OH, which he didn't.The expanded model over-represents votes in a number of states that Obama is already going to win, including DC (not a state), California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Michigan. It doesn't matter in terms of electoral vote whether he wins those states 51-49 or 90-10.

Also, the "expanded" model doesn't include the Bradley Effect, which means Obama polls better than he does on election day (as happened in the PA Primary). Ironically, Obama's own internal polls (showing PA as close) are probably a better model than Gallup's.

On "likely voters": In past elections, between one-in-four and one-in-five "likely voters" did not vote. Among registered voters, the ratio of non-voters is significantly higher. I believe Barack Obama probably will win a majority of the votes cast in the U.S. However, because he's getting a disproportionate number of those votes in states McCain is NOT contesting, the Republican candidate conceivably could win a majority of the electoral votes.

That's a major reason for Obama's panicked return to Pittsburgh, which is the wrong city for him to visit, since he's already going to win the 'Burgh. McCain and Palin are going to the right places (including Beaver County, Hershey, and State College).

Note: If John Kerry had gotten 150,000 more votes in Ohio, he would have won a majority of electoral votes. Yet countrywide, Bush still would have won by 2.9 million ballots.

If John McCain wins FL, OH, and PA, he will be the next President of the United States. Keep your eye on Zogby, which hit the 2000 race dead-center.