WHY THE POLLSTERS BLEW IT

As you may have noticed, the political polls change with about the same regularity as the weather. However, let's admit it: you believe they tell you something of value, and so do I. For the most part, we should discard that belief.

Right now (Monday night), I'm hearing "from Michigan" that the polls (which ones?) are telling us that John McCain and Mitt Romney are running "neck-and-neck" (is there any other way for politicians to run?). Does that mean we'll have to stay up late tomorrow (Tuesday) to see if Mitt Romney elects to take "early retirement" from the race? Maybe.

I think McCain will finish first, perhaps well ahead of Romney. Mike Huckabee will finish third.

But the Michigan primary, like the previous one in New Hampshire, is impossible to predict. For one thing, Independents can vote in the primary -- Democratic or Republican. No one knows how the "Independents" (a much smaller percentage in MI than NH) will vote -- or even if they'll vote. Also, Michigan is a fully open primary, and Democrats apparently can vote in the Republican primary. The Daily Kos, an extreme leftist blog, is telling Michigan Democrats to vote for Mitt Romney -- the better to screw up the Republican results.

What about the Democratic candidates? Well, for arcane reasons the national Democrat Party has told the candidates not to campaign in Michigan. So, there are only three candidates on the ballot. One is Hillary Clinton, and the other two are the ever-popular Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. What about Barack and John? They're not on the ballot.

What is on the Democratic ballot is an heretofore unknown candidate known as "Uncommitted." In other words, if you don't feel like voting for Hillary, Dennis, and Mike, you don't have to vote for anyone. If Mr. (or Ms.?) Uncommitted gets a lot of support, I'm sure the pundits will tell us what that means.

Given all these factors, don't ask me exactly what's going to happen in Michigan. Anyone who claims to know -- even if their name is Gallup, Zogby, or Rassmussen -- qualifies as an idiot.

In yesterday's (Sunday's) Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, there was an article about failures of the pollsters in New Hampshire. Writer Daniel Malloy says, "Pollsters argued that the polls weren't wrong [perish the thought!] -- there was just a change in the thinking of voters, especially women, who suddenly became eager to support an underdog, emotional Mrs. Clinton."

Of course, that's all bulldoodoo. When someone presents us with a poll that has a certain "margin of error" and the results far exceed the margin, then we need a new pollster. After all, polls aren't supposed to be a crap shoot, are they?

I'll let you in on a secret. I know precisely -- right down to the percentage points -- what's going to happen in Michigan. But since you don't believe me, I'm not going to tell you now. I will tell you tomorrow night.


Tomorrow, I'll write some more about the polls -- including Gallup's classic blunders in 2004, when they had Bush winning PA (he lost) and losing Ohio (he won).

Hillary's Bad-Hair Day, Murtha's Daze

Even a presidential candidate can have an exceptionally bad hair day

But we all know why one candidate never has a bad hair day: John Edwards.

I promise tomorrow (well, today, since I stayed up late) will not be a serious column. I shall instead look at the lighter side. After all, if politicians weren't funny, they'd have to pay us for their services, right?

There is no truth to the rumor that Lt. Col Russell advocates re-naming Johnstown's "The John Murtha Cancer Center" and calling it "The American Taxpayers Cancer Center."

Tuesday on "NCIS" Agent Gibbs said "There's no such thing as an ex-Marine." But has Agent Gibbs ever met John Murtha?

Hillary Clinton says there will be no co-presidency with hubby Bill. In that family, we know who wears the pants suits.

"When I'm President again . . ." (Hillary Clinton)
How did we miss her previous Presidential term?

What are the chances of Chelsea Clinton emulating Gov. Sarah Palin's son and joining the military? About the same as Hillary's campaigning with Monica Lewinsky.

John Murtha has been appealing to voters for a catchy campaign slogan.
So far, the leader is: "The best congressman money can buy."

Kucinich just announced the formation of a powerful new coalition: Dwarves for Dennis.

Okay, if Romney is the Mormon guy, why is he the only candidate with just one wife?

Mike Huckabee has a secret poll showing he can the nomination if he changes his last name to "Washington."

Why does John Murtha keep putting his head in a vise? Because he loves the earmarks.

Murtha is famous for "bringing home the Bacon." But on Haditha he had to settle for laying the eggs.

William Russell's last medal was the Bronze Star for valor. John Murtha's last medal was the frilly one he got from "Code Pink."

How many Democrats does it take to screw in a light bulb? Answer: none, because that's the government's job.

My favorite Abraham Lincoln story is the one he told about the corrupt mayor who was tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. A newspaper reporter asked the man what the experience was like. He said, "You know, if it wasn't for the honor of the thing, I'd rather have walked."

My favorite political story: An exit pollster asking an older woman on the street how she'd voted. She said, "Vote? I never vote! It only encourages them."

Politics is a serious subject -- to serious. And from time to time, you'll hear about the lighter side. On my other site, you'll find some more hee-hees. If you have some of your own, send them along (in comments or to: TalkTop65@aol.com.

Note: I'm getting enquiries from people asking how they can contribute to or otherwise support the candidacy of Lt. Col. William T. Russell. You can do by going to his site at: http://williamrussellforcongress.com. Your support is very much appreciated.

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. . . and one moderately serious moment

Russell for Congress Announces Communications Team

Bob Anderson will serve as Director of Communications. Bob is a multifaceted practitioner of assimilating information through his newsletter and podcasts. As a keynote speaker, national security consultant, author, and open-source intelligence ‘broker’ on homeland security, Bob informs, inspires and entertains his audiences.

Bob led a Pentagon “think tank” at the Joint Electronic Warfare Center and received a national award from the Electronic Warfare Association for developing concept, strategy and operational methods.

As a keynote speaker and homeland security expert, he publishes homeland security briefs as newsletters and podcasts detailing relevant open-source information to the national intelligence community and others in addition to hosting these podcasts on national issues.

Bob is a retired U.S. Marine Corps officer specializing in communications and special analytical support to operational forces and Intelligence Community. He led planning, training, and implementation for concepts and policies to protect our national and international government and private infrastructure.

Bob’s military career was followed by over 20 years in the private sector specializing in strategic planning, intelligence analysis, information technology development and testing (computer systems engineering, design and development), protection of national infrastructure, business intelligence, marketing communications, and business development and operations.


Steve Maloney will serve as Deputy Director of Communications. Steve has been active in conservative (Republican) politics since the early 1970s, assisting in Newt Gingrich's first campaign for Congress. He has written for various publications, including National Review, The American Spectator, Fortune, and many others.

From the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s he taught English and writing courses at Wm. & Mary and the University of Georgia. Later, he served as a business speechwriter for Phillips Petroleum, Gulf Oil, Aetna, and Eli Lilly (pharmaceuticals). He's a graduate of the University of Rochester and was born in that city. He has five children and lives with his wife, Pat, and a daughter in Beaver County, PA.

One of the driving desires in his life is to help William Trower Russell beat John Murtha. His political specialties are fundraising assistance, Internet politics and recruiting support from young people -- high schoolers and college students. "The only bad ideas in politics are the ones that backfire."“

As we start out on the campaign trail, we've put together a team that knows the 12th Congressional District well and knows how to beat incumbents,” said Larry Stiles. “We're excited about the 12 months ahead and looking forward to working with our grassroots Russell Team of volunteers to elect William Russell as our next congressman and make the 12th Congressional District great again.”

Steve adds: I look forward to assisting William T. Russell and his team in any way I can. The goal of this campaign is to win by out-working and out-smarting John Murtha. This campaign will have national implications, and we look forward to getting great support in the 12th District and throughout the nation. The way you win an election is to ask tens of thousands of people to honor you with their vote, and we will do precisely that.