McCain and Obama are neck and neck, but some polls haven't figured that out.
Two mornings ago you probably heard that the Los Angeles Times poll showed Barack Obama with a national lead over John McCain of 49% to 37%. Time to panic?
Perhaps -- until you heard Carl Cameron of FOX (one newsman who has a brain) say that the Gallup (Daily) Tracking Poll shows McCain and Obama in a (drum-roll) "statistical dead heat," with both men polling 45%. Gallup, despite a few bumps in its long road, is in fact "the gold standard" of polls.
The LA Times survey is more a political statement than a scientific poll. When it comes to the Times, liberals seem always to "poll" very well. There's only one California survey with a record for accuracy: the Field Poll.
But as the Times has disovered, releasing a cockamamie poll is a good way to sell papers.Should you instead depend on a newsman like the esteemed Chris Wallace? Today, Wallace was speaking about Pennsylvania, where I live, and he said, "Hillary Clinton won it by 20-30%.
Oh really? Mrs. Clinton won Pennsylvania by 9.2%. Chris Wallace was off by roughtly 11-21 percentage points. Isn't political coverage supposed to be his strong suit? He may have been confusing PA with WV, where Mrs. Clinton won by 41%. (I guess WV must have a 5,000 truckoads of "bitter" people.)
Chris Wallace also repeated the rumor (it's not much more than that) that Obama is ahead by 12% in the critical state of Pennsylvania. I wondered if the LA Times had conducted a survey here (without my knowledge).
Like all states, we have our versions of Mom n Pop polls, which are always wrong.Trust me, McCain is doing well in Pennsylvania, and he will win this state. As Mrs. Clinton demonstrated in the Primary, Obama is not well-liked here. Our state's animosity toward him mirrors his hostility to us. We're much too busy clinging to our guns and our Bibles to embrace an unarmed man who has Rev. Wright and Fr. Pfleger confused with Christians.
More about polls in later columns later. I love them, but I don't trust them -- except for Gallup, especially when it's in line with my wishes.
By the way, McCain being even with Obama, if Gallup is correct, means he almost certainly well ahead in electoral votes. Obama is over-performing in three large states (NY, IL, and CA), and that skews the polls.
One other fact to keep in mind: Obama has a history of showing up better in polls than he does with real ballots. For whatever reason, he does about 5% better with pollsters than with real, live voters.
There, didn't I make you feel better about things political?
Showing posts with label Rev. Wright. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rev. Wright. Show all posts
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
McCain: Fire the Dxxn Lobbyists!
Doesn't anybody out there know how to play this game?"
The Pastor Hagee endorsement is a disaster of moderate proportions. The resignation of five lobbyist staff members is also a disaster. I have raised questions about what kind of advice McCain is getting from his staffers, who include too many lobbyists and, apparently, too few people who are willing to give the Senator their own "straight talk."
I regard the Senator as one of the most honorable men ever to run for President. He is an authentic American hero, but there are mistakes being made in this campaign that are unnecessary. Having people on the staff who are lobbyists for the Burmese junta is almost suicidal.
The lobbyists must go, and that includes the talented campaign manager, Rick Davis. They are all lightning rods for the opposition. Surely there are enough non-lobbyists around to run a presidential campaign. The Senator needs to find them -- and quickly.
The Campaign staffers did John McCain no favors by recommending that he denounce the North Carolina GOP's anti-Obama ad. He admitted he never saw the commercial. And his staff-generated criticism of it fueled anger among some of the same conservatives he was trying (very unsuccessfully) to pick up with the ill-considered Hagee endorsement.
His staff should have warned him about Hagee, and apparently they didn't. So, exactly what good are they?
Obama is going to beat the Senator about the head-and-shoulders on the issue of lobbyists. He is going to say that if John can't manage his staff how can he manage the country. And our reply is going to be . . . what?
As for Hagee, the media will portray him as John McCain's "Reverend Wright." Oops, there goes the Wright-issue as an albatross around Obama's neck. (Tjis afternoon Obama compared Hagee to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.)
The campaign blunders have to stop. And the staffers who are making them have to go.
There are people out there who could help McCain greatly. One of them is my friend from Oklahoma, Sharon Caliendo. One reason she's a friend is that she is one of the best political operatives in the country. Another is the brilliant 21-year-old who is primarily responsible for the national admiration of Gov. Sarah Palin. These people are dedicated to the election of John McCain, and they have no baggage. They are people of great integrity.
I'm fairly certain the Senator has not heard of these people. But they've never been on "K Street," and if they make mistakes, they're small ones.
The most important quality any staffer possesses is his or her ability to tell the unvarnished truth to the candidate. This is a very bad week for John McCain.
Additional Comments: I've had a lot of experience dealing with lobbyists, especially ones associated with the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (now called "PhaRMa"), but also with lobbyists for Phillips Petroleum, Gulf Oil, and other companies. In general, I don't like lobbyists. They make a great deal of money, but gernally has too small a conscience.
Okay, two of McCain's staffers had to leave because they were representing the government (i.e., the junta) that controls Myanmar, formerly called Burma. Exactly what kind of people would lobby for a despicable government like the one in Burma, which is currently denying aid to people whose lives are slipping away.
Really, are they people a man like John McCain would really want on his campaign staff? Are they people he could trust? Would they sell him out if a better offer came their way?
I can't imagine what John McCain and his campaign manager had in mind.
The Pastor Hagee endorsement is a disaster of moderate proportions. The resignation of five lobbyist staff members is also a disaster. I have raised questions about what kind of advice McCain is getting from his staffers, who include too many lobbyists and, apparently, too few people who are willing to give the Senator their own "straight talk."
I regard the Senator as one of the most honorable men ever to run for President. He is an authentic American hero, but there are mistakes being made in this campaign that are unnecessary. Having people on the staff who are lobbyists for the Burmese junta is almost suicidal.
The lobbyists must go, and that includes the talented campaign manager, Rick Davis. They are all lightning rods for the opposition. Surely there are enough non-lobbyists around to run a presidential campaign. The Senator needs to find them -- and quickly.
The Campaign staffers did John McCain no favors by recommending that he denounce the North Carolina GOP's anti-Obama ad. He admitted he never saw the commercial. And his staff-generated criticism of it fueled anger among some of the same conservatives he was trying (very unsuccessfully) to pick up with the ill-considered Hagee endorsement.
His staff should have warned him about Hagee, and apparently they didn't. So, exactly what good are they?
Obama is going to beat the Senator about the head-and-shoulders on the issue of lobbyists. He is going to say that if John can't manage his staff how can he manage the country. And our reply is going to be . . . what?
As for Hagee, the media will portray him as John McCain's "Reverend Wright." Oops, there goes the Wright-issue as an albatross around Obama's neck. (Tjis afternoon Obama compared Hagee to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.)
The campaign blunders have to stop. And the staffers who are making them have to go.
There are people out there who could help McCain greatly. One of them is my friend from Oklahoma, Sharon Caliendo. One reason she's a friend is that she is one of the best political operatives in the country. Another is the brilliant 21-year-old who is primarily responsible for the national admiration of Gov. Sarah Palin. These people are dedicated to the election of John McCain, and they have no baggage. They are people of great integrity.
I'm fairly certain the Senator has not heard of these people. But they've never been on "K Street," and if they make mistakes, they're small ones.
The most important quality any staffer possesses is his or her ability to tell the unvarnished truth to the candidate. This is a very bad week for John McCain.
Additional Comments: I've had a lot of experience dealing with lobbyists, especially ones associated with the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (now called "PhaRMa"), but also with lobbyists for Phillips Petroleum, Gulf Oil, and other companies. In general, I don't like lobbyists. They make a great deal of money, but gernally has too small a conscience.
Okay, two of McCain's staffers had to leave because they were representing the government (i.e., the junta) that controls Myanmar, formerly called Burma. Exactly what kind of people would lobby for a despicable government like the one in Burma, which is currently denying aid to people whose lives are slipping away.
Really, are they people a man like John McCain would really want on his campaign staff? Are they people he could trust? Would they sell him out if a better offer came their way?
I can't imagine what John McCain and his campaign manager had in mind.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Obama: More White People Needed
"Get me more white people!" -- Said by an Obama campaign coordinator looking for Caucasians to put behind Michelle Obama at a rally at Carnegie Mellon Univeristy (CMU) in Pittsburgh (as reported by CNN).
"America in 2008 is a mean country." (Michelle Obama, a Princeton and Harvard Law graduate who makes $300,000-plus annually working in "community outreach" at a Chicago hospital)
"A typical white person." (Obama in Dreams From My Father talking about his white grandmother)
Note: Tomorrow (Friday) I'll have a column (mildly) critical of John McCain for asking North Carolina Republicans to withdraw a commercial critical of the Obama/Wright connection and the pro-Obama Democratic gubernatorial candidates in NC. I know John McCain is a thoroughly decent and honorable man, but sometimes I wonder if he fully grasps the kind of opposition he's up against. Also, I don't believe he's in position to tell a state party how to conduct its campaigns -- any more than they are to give him instructions. I hope you'll visit.
Here's what a friend said about my forthcoming criticism of John McCain: "I'll be very interested to read it. I personally think that mild (or at times heavy) criticism of McCain is a good thing. Leaders should be open to advice from supporters, and supporters who view their candidate as perfect (see: Obamamania) are kidding themselves, proving a lack of intellectual compotence, and doing a disservice to their candidate by not offering advice. in short, supporters who are able to criticize their leader are far more useful and productive than those who are not."
"America in 2008 is a mean country." (Michelle Obama, a Princeton and Harvard Law graduate who makes $300,000-plus annually working in "community outreach" at a Chicago hospital)
"A typical white person." (Obama in Dreams From My Father talking about his white grandmother)
Note: Tomorrow (Friday) I'll have a column (mildly) critical of John McCain for asking North Carolina Republicans to withdraw a commercial critical of the Obama/Wright connection and the pro-Obama Democratic gubernatorial candidates in NC. I know John McCain is a thoroughly decent and honorable man, but sometimes I wonder if he fully grasps the kind of opposition he's up against. Also, I don't believe he's in position to tell a state party how to conduct its campaigns -- any more than they are to give him instructions. I hope you'll visit.
Here's what a friend said about my forthcoming criticism of John McCain: "I'll be very interested to read it. I personally think that mild (or at times heavy) criticism of McCain is a good thing. Leaders should be open to advice from supporters, and supporters who view their candidate as perfect (see: Obamamania) are kidding themselves, proving a lack of intellectual compotence, and doing a disservice to their candidate by not offering advice. in short, supporters who are able to criticize their leader are far more useful and productive than those who are not."
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Obama's Pro-Terrorist Church
When exactly does Barack Obama get held to account for being a 20-year member of a racist, anti-American, Israel-hating church? When does he stop using the excuse that he "wasn't there that particular Sunday?" Who exactly is Barack Obama? And what precisely does he believe? Does anyone know the answer to those questions? Over the next 3 1/2 weeks Obama will be spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania, and it's time for journalists in this state to start asking the hard questions they'd use with any other presidential candidate.
Right now, Obama's wife, who's "not proud" of her country, and the pastor who apparently influenced her thinking, aren't available to the media. As for Obama, he gives a speech "about race" rather than about why he is not detaching himself from a bizarre pastor and his church. As for us, the American people, "yes we can" ask for a serious explanation of Obama's actions and beliefs.
Obama’s Pro-Hamas Church
By INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY,
3/25/08
Election 2008:
It’s bad enough that Barack Obama’s church took sick joy in 9/11 for "racist white America" supporting "Zionists." Now we learn it also is a mouthpiece for anti-Israeli terrorists.
Last July, Trinity United Church of Christ reprinted a Hamas manifesto written by a terrorist fugitive wanted by the FBI. It was published across two pages of the "Pastor’s Page" section of the church bulletin.
Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s name is copyrighted at the bottom of the pages. For those who don’t know, Wright is the anti-American, anti-Israeli bigot that Obama has consorted with for the past two decades.
In his newsletter, the preacher gives Mousa Abu Marzook a platform to justify the Palestinian terrorist group’s denial of Israel’s right to exist, while defending strikes against Israeli targets.
Marzook is identified in the church bulletin only as the "deputy of the political bureau of Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement."
In fact, Marzook was kicked out of the U.S. several years ago after the U.S. declared him a specially designated terrorist.
The Palestinian was indicted in 2004 for conspiring to funnel millions to Hamas to carry out kidnappings, bombings and other attacks on Israel. Believed to be hiding in Syria, he remains a fugitive.
Even if Wright didn’t know Marzook was wanted by the government, Hamas has been designated a terrorist group since 1995, blacklisted by a Democrat administration.
Wright had to have known from headlines that Hamas targets innocent civilians in pizza parlors and buses for suicide bombings, eviscerating children and elderly with fireballs laced with nails and ball bearings. These are not warriors, but terrorists.
Obama, for his part, says he is shocked— shocked! — that his church would support Hamas.
"I certainly wasn’t in church when that outrageously wrong piece was reprinted in the bulletin," he said in a carefully worded statement that denies only his attendance and not his prior knowledge of the bulletin.
The Democratic front-runner for president seems to think if he just claims "not present," he won’t be linked to his longtime church’s radicalism. But a history of 20 years of church attendance and close ties to Wright make that impossible.
When videos showed his pastor blaming America for 9/11 and damning it to hell, Obama insisted he did not attend service on the days those particular sermons were delivered.
Obama also pleaded ignorance about Wright last year honoring anti-Semite Louis Farrakhan with a "lifetime achievement award," even though the church featured Farrakhan on the cover of its magazine and held a gala in Chicago to celebrate his "greatness."
This didn’t come out of the blue. Wright and Farrakhan go way back. In the 1980s, they traveled to Libya to pay homage to terrorist leader Muammar Qaddafi.
Yet, Wright is the man Obama says has been "like an uncle" to him all these years.
It strains credulity that in all their conversations, he remains in the dark about his radical ties.
Yet now that Obama knows Wright sympathizes with terrorists, Obama continues to defend him and his church.
"This is a pillar of the community," Obama said, "and if you go there on Easter, and you sat down there in the pew, you would think this is just like any other church."
Maybe any other church in Gaza or the West Bank. But certainly not in post-9/11 America.
Who does Obama think he’s fooling? He needs to sever ties with Wright and his church, regardless of their support.
If he can’t stand up to them, how can he stand up to terrorists?
Right now, Obama's wife, who's "not proud" of her country, and the pastor who apparently influenced her thinking, aren't available to the media. As for Obama, he gives a speech "about race" rather than about why he is not detaching himself from a bizarre pastor and his church. As for us, the American people, "yes we can" ask for a serious explanation of Obama's actions and beliefs.
Obama’s Pro-Hamas Church
By INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY,
3/25/08
Election 2008:
It’s bad enough that Barack Obama’s church took sick joy in 9/11 for "racist white America" supporting "Zionists." Now we learn it also is a mouthpiece for anti-Israeli terrorists.
Last July, Trinity United Church of Christ reprinted a Hamas manifesto written by a terrorist fugitive wanted by the FBI. It was published across two pages of the "Pastor’s Page" section of the church bulletin.
Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s name is copyrighted at the bottom of the pages. For those who don’t know, Wright is the anti-American, anti-Israeli bigot that Obama has consorted with for the past two decades.
In his newsletter, the preacher gives Mousa Abu Marzook a platform to justify the Palestinian terrorist group’s denial of Israel’s right to exist, while defending strikes against Israeli targets.
Marzook is identified in the church bulletin only as the "deputy of the political bureau of Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement."
In fact, Marzook was kicked out of the U.S. several years ago after the U.S. declared him a specially designated terrorist.
The Palestinian was indicted in 2004 for conspiring to funnel millions to Hamas to carry out kidnappings, bombings and other attacks on Israel. Believed to be hiding in Syria, he remains a fugitive.
Even if Wright didn’t know Marzook was wanted by the government, Hamas has been designated a terrorist group since 1995, blacklisted by a Democrat administration.
Wright had to have known from headlines that Hamas targets innocent civilians in pizza parlors and buses for suicide bombings, eviscerating children and elderly with fireballs laced with nails and ball bearings. These are not warriors, but terrorists.
Obama, for his part, says he is shocked— shocked! — that his church would support Hamas.
"I certainly wasn’t in church when that outrageously wrong piece was reprinted in the bulletin," he said in a carefully worded statement that denies only his attendance and not his prior knowledge of the bulletin.
The Democratic front-runner for president seems to think if he just claims "not present," he won’t be linked to his longtime church’s radicalism. But a history of 20 years of church attendance and close ties to Wright make that impossible.
When videos showed his pastor blaming America for 9/11 and damning it to hell, Obama insisted he did not attend service on the days those particular sermons were delivered.
Obama also pleaded ignorance about Wright last year honoring anti-Semite Louis Farrakhan with a "lifetime achievement award," even though the church featured Farrakhan on the cover of its magazine and held a gala in Chicago to celebrate his "greatness."
This didn’t come out of the blue. Wright and Farrakhan go way back. In the 1980s, they traveled to Libya to pay homage to terrorist leader Muammar Qaddafi.
Yet, Wright is the man Obama says has been "like an uncle" to him all these years.
It strains credulity that in all their conversations, he remains in the dark about his radical ties.
Yet now that Obama knows Wright sympathizes with terrorists, Obama continues to defend him and his church.
"This is a pillar of the community," Obama said, "and if you go there on Easter, and you sat down there in the pew, you would think this is just like any other church."
Maybe any other church in Gaza or the West Bank. But certainly not in post-9/11 America.
Who does Obama think he’s fooling? He needs to sever ties with Wright and his church, regardless of their support.
If he can’t stand up to them, how can he stand up to terrorists?
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